SCMS hosts successfully the International Conference “India-China- US Triangle”
International Conference on the India-China-U.S. Triangle at SCMS-COCHIN
A new initiative for a new world order
Eminent politicians, bureaucrats and scholars from India, China, the USA and Israel participated in a three-day major international conference on India-China-U.S. equation held at SCMS-COCHIN campus on January 21, 22 and 23. The event was organized by the Centre for National Renaissance, New Delhi, in association with John Fairbank Centre, Harvard University, U.S.; the Institute for International Studies, Tsinghua University, China; Center for China in the World Economy, Tsinghua University, China and SCMS-COCHIN.
Not sacrificing national interests
Inaugurating the meet on January 21, Shri M.A.Baby, Minister of Education, Kerala pointed out how China had developed a mutually beneficial relationship with the U.S. without sacrificing its own interests. India should also be able to build up relationship with the U.S. in a similar way without in any way sacrificing the national interests, he suggested.
Describing the conference as a very important initiative, the Minister clarified that by aligning together and strengthening the relationship between India and China based on a strong foundation of mutually beneficial policies for strategic and economic development, the two countries would be in a strong position to determine the course of global events in future in a big way.
Need of the hour
Dr.Subramanian Swamy, Chairman, Centre for National Renaissance, New Delhi and Chairman, Governing Council, SCMS Group explained that the conference would address three important questions: Will India and China continue to grow economically and militarily in the coming decades or are there obstacles to such growth? Will India and China as candidates for developed country status decades hence, be an economic opportunity or a threat to the projected US economic situation in terms of jobs, access to energy, and innovations? Will US be able to strategically partner with India or China, or both for a new world order? The aim of the conference was to bring to light the critical issues concerning the economic and strategic relations between India, China and the U.S., Dr.Swamy informed.
Dr.Swamy also indicated that the conference would be of extraordinary global interest because India, China and the U.S. were the most populous nations in the world. Removing misunderstandings between the three nations had become the need of the hour, he remarked. He also expressed his firm intention to set up a center to focus on the India-China-U.S. triangle.
The East and the West
Dr.G.P.C.Nayar, Chairman, SCMS Group, in his welcome address, stressed on the importance of shaping a new world order in the emerging global situation for establishing world-wide prosperity and peace. He also said that he was immensely happy because SCMS-COCHIN was fortunate enough to become the venue for the meet of the East and the West for an intellectual exercise aimed at analyzing the future structuring of bilateral and trilateral relations among them.
Deep apprehension
Presenting his paper on ‘The China-India-U.S. Triangle, 2001-2007,’ in the first technical session held on January 22, Prof John W.Garver, Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA said that repeated highly authoritative statements of national strategy by the Bush Administration indicated deep apprehension about China’s growing national strength and the objectives for which Chinese power would be employed. The objective of Bush Administration policy was not to ally or align with India against China. Bush’s policy, rather, seemed to be to make Beijing aware of the possibility of an Indian-U.S. bloc – or an Indian-Japanese-Australian-U.S. bloc – to counter China in the event that China some day decided to use its greater national power in an aggressive and expansionist fashion. “The goal of Bush’s triangular policy is to prevent China from going down an aggressive, expansionist path, by making Chinese leaders aware that such a path would very probably encounter a U.S.-Indian bloc as part of a larger coalition to counter Chinese aggression,” Prof.Garver explained.
The deep suspicions between the U.S. and China have prompted India to take an advantageous middle position in the India-China –U.S. triangle, he remarked. According to him, India played on U.S. fears of China’s rapidly growing power to secure U.S. support for Indian objectives. Now, an important question confronting the Indian strategists is how to better utilize the current advantageous position occupied by India in the triangle, commented Prof. Garver.
Positive role
India, however, was perceived as playing a far more positive role, he said. While India was emerging as a great power and a key strategic partner of the U.S., the underlying U.S. support for India’s rise was not to ally or align with India against China, but to create an Asia with many powerful and confident powers other than China which would dissuade China’s leaders from embarking on a course of expansion and aggression, Prof. Garver stated.
In his opinion, a strong India would prevent China from dominating the Bay of Bengal. Quoting from a report of a recent U.S. think tank he said that the U.S. agenda with regard to the rising power of India, pointed out that considering India would possess a potential developing ability in the next 20 to 25 years, the Bush administration should help the country become an Asian superpower that could counterbalance China. India has a growing desire to reshape the world and it really needs support from the United States, since their quasi-ally will help India play a larger role in the world, supplemented Prof.Garver.
Prospects bright
Initiating a discussion on the subject, Dr.Subramanian Swamy, said that prospects for improved U.S.-India relations appeared to be bright because U.S.-Pakistan partnership was dependent on the survival of Pakistan, which today is under siege, from all sides, internal and external, moderate and fundamentalist. “If Pakistan starts to unravel, then a U.S.-India compact to stem the consequences will become inevitable. This is a contingency that U.S. and India will have to provide for,” he added. Prof. Yan Xuetong, Director, Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University, China chaired the session.
Presenting his paper on ‘Sino-Indian Relations and USA.’ in the second session, Shri S.Krishnaswamy, Former Air Chief Marshal of India said that it was unlikely that the U.S. and China would have common strategic interests other than those concerned with the war on terrorism. “Despite China having targeted the U.S. as its main adversary, the new administration at the Capitol Hill is likely to work closer with China to garner support in world politics,” he predicted.
Discomfort in working closely
On account of the past episodes of mistrust, India and USA have some discomfort to work closely in strategic and technology areas. It would require a step-by-step slow procedure to get closer with each other, indicated the former Air Marshal. He was of opinion that these two countries were bound to get closer, since fundamentally there were no adversarial issues involved. “On the other hand, it is good for the US to have a democratic partner nation that has the potential of being a regional power and a trust worthy friend on the other side of the globe. Therefore it is important for the US to cultivate India and similarly for India to strengthen its ties with the US for getting technological support for its growth,” he observed
In spite of the many confidence-building measures initiated and progressed smoothly between India and China, India is unlikely to have any kind of strategic relationship with China because of the past experiences, apprehensions and clashes of interests, Shri Krishnaswamy said. He maintained that India would not forget the humiliation of the 1962 defeat and the active collaboration between China and Pakistan. In his opinion, India would continue to be cautious about China’s intention in South and South East Asia and in Indian Ocean. India would also continue to build capability to counter China including that of developing nuclear deterrence, he argued. “The relations between India and China oscillate between indifference and rivalry,” he added.
No permanent enemies
“However, in politics and international relations there are no permanent enemies or permanent friends,” remarked the Air Marshal. History of relationship and political traits determine the choice that a nation may make among options that are possible. Most nations maintain bilateral relations even with countries that do not see eye-to-eye, said Shri Krishnaswamy while discussing the possibilities in future.
Continue dialogue
There is a need for more continued dialogues between the two countries in order to build up friendly ties. ‘I think we are going in the right direction with the appropriate decisions taken by the two governments, commented the Air Marshal.
Open a new chapter
Countering Air Marshal Krishnaswamy’s views former Peoples Liberation Army General and Tsinghua University Professor Pan Zhenquing said that India should not live in the shadow of the past. It is unfortunate that India still keeps those things in mind when China wants to open up a new chapter, he supplemented. In the context of exaggerated fear, both the countries should try to get out of it and should try to reach a win-win situation, through very specific action programmes, suggested Prof. Pan.
Realistic approach
Chairing the session, Shri. Jaswant Singh, former Foreign Affairs Minister and Leader of Opposition, Rajya Sabha, India, said that India’s relationship with China should not be built on dreams. India should move forward realistically and keep its interests while fostering relationship, he recommended. He also stressed on how much India would need a stable Pakistan as our neighbor.
Prof. Li Dao Kui, Tsinghua University presented his paper on Sino-U.S. Relations and India in the third session. Prof. Penelope Prime, Mercer University, USA initiated the discussions. Prof. Dwight Perkins, Harvard University chaired the session
India too a beneficiary
In the post-lunch session Prof. M.D.Nalapat, UNESCO Peace Chair, Manipal University, India presented his paper on Indo-US Relations and China. According to him China’s growth is beneficial for the international economy despite the denunciations of some politicians, businesspersons and opinion molders in the world’s more economically developed democracies. “India too is a beneficiary rather than a victim of such growth,” he argued.
“Should the US continue to follow a policy that sustains the artificial barrier between the West and the Rest, and seeks to contain India within the latter geopolitical space, the option of forming an alliance between New Delhi, Moscow and Beijing would become a preferred alternative,” Shri Nalapat opined. While such a linkage would have additional economic and social costs for India, “the benefits gained by the prevention of the choking of technology and opportunity by a one-sided linkage with the US-led alliance would compensate” for it, he observed.
Shri Nalapat was of opinion that “unfortunately for both the US as well as India, the present administration in New Delhi had radiated a perception of acceptance of a status secondary to that of the principal US partners.” This has resulted in efforts to ensure the entry of India into the US-led alliance architecture on terms that do not protect the country’s future as a technological power. Whether such an approach should continue or the option of a geostrategic attachment to Moscow and subsequently to Beijing need to be considered is a matter to be discussed, Said Shri Nalapat..
Role of democracy
Speaking on the same subject in the same session, Prof. Sun Zhe, Tsinghua University said that the ideology of democracy had an important role in shaping the most important bilateral international relationship in the world, namely, U.S.-China relations. The American government should find a way to see that its active support for democracy did not in any way destroy this critical relationship. From the Chinese point of view, with substantial liberalization that had already taken place in China, there is a pressing need for the country to shed its undemocratic aspects of the system of government, said Prof. Sun. Historically speaking, democracy had always been on China’s political agenda during the reform era. “Along with prosperity, civilization and harmony it is one of China’s four national goals,” he clarified.
Chinese model of democracy
But the Chinese interpretation of democracy is different from that of the U.S. because of its limitations on liberty and individuality, and strong insistence on collectivism, he explained. “Even though the Chinese Communist Party had rejected Western style of democracy, it had managed to put forth a program for social development, which enjoyed majority support for continuing the reform program,” he continued. China wants to pursue its own model of democracy. We may be slow in enacting political reform, but the country is relatively strong and stable, and is becoming a dynamic force and emerging power in the world, said Prof. Sun.
From the American point of view, both American politicians and the general public favour a more democratic China. They would not view China as a serious threat if China were a democratic country. A contrasting example is India. Most Americans do not perceive India as a serious threat to U.S.national security due, in large part, to the fact that India has a western style democratic system, said Prof.Sun.
Most difficult threat
“The Chinese government is now facing its most difficult threat ever: governing a country undergoing rapid social and economic transformation, and coping with increasing globalisation and democratization worldwide,” said Prof.Sun elaborating on imminent challenge faced by the country.
In conclusion Prof. Sun said that the complicated evolving relationship between the U.S. and China should be understood in a comprehensive framework. He stressed on the need for establishing a strategic dialogue on the issue of democracy in order to further the mutual trust between the two countries.
No clash possible
Mr.Wang Yaodong, Chief of Bureau, Wen Hui Bao who initiated the discussions on the subject said that China was slowly moving toward democracy. He could not see any possibility of a clash in future between the two countries.
Better to argue
Shri Sanjay Baru, Media advisor to Prime Minister, India, who chaired the session, said that arguments are useful to understand each other, more than polite words. Since we need a basis for working together academic exercises of this nature are very useful. Twenty years ago China redefined to accept market economy. Today they are coming forward to evolve a new system of democracy, not the true western form. Rather than condemn that process, I would welcome it, he said.
The last session of the day was on India-China-U.S. Energy Triangle. As the first speaker on the subject Prof. Marshall J. Goldman, Harvard University said that both China and India are in the energy intensive stage of their development. China is by far the largest consumer of petroleum in Asia and their needs are growing at the fastest pace. Countries like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhistan have emerged as new oil producers and along with Russia they are inducing new political alliances because their energy is highly sought after, explained Prof. Marshall.
Potential for confrontation
Speaking on the topic of Energy Triangle, Prof.Yitzhak Shichor, Hebrew University, Israel said that in the triangular pursuit of crude oil, “the potential for confrontation between Beijing and Delhi is relatively low because India’s oil demands are, and will remain, smaller than China’s and because these two countries tend to cooperate in the energy market and do not compete for predominance. Yet, the potential for confrontation between both, and primarily China, and the United states, is relatively higher because together they constitute an oil import bloc that rivals the United States and at the same time challenge Washington’s predominance.”
U.S. should recognise
Reacting on the presentations, Shri E.A.S.Sharma, former Secretary of Energy, India said that the U.S. and other developed countries should recognize the economic development aspirations of China and India and the compulsion on their part to reduce poverty within the shortest possible time. Developed countries like the U.S. should voluntarily take on their legitimate share of the burden to cut emission levels to permit enough space to countries like China and India to pursue their respective poverty reduction programmes in an unconstrained manner. He concluded that what we require is statesmanship
Dr. Hu Shisheng, Director, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, chaired the session.
During the sixth session, the next day morning, Prof. Wang Yijiang, Tsinghua University and Dr. Hu Shisheng, Director, South Asia Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations presented their papers on Sino-U.S. Relations and India.
Engines of global reform
China and India are not only rising economies, but furthermore are the engines of the global reform, said Dr. Hu Shisheng in his brilliant analysis of the impact of the two countries upon the international system. The rising China and India are rapidly reshaping the world economy and redefining the world geo-political map, making the international strength pattern and balance of power tilting more favorably toward Asia. The rejuvenation of both these countries would certainly challenge the superiority of western civilization. It makes it more and more difficult for the westerners to live at ease.” They even wonder that some day their development model will completely lose its luster and finally be totally superseded by the Chinese and Indian models,” explained Dr.Hu.
Purposely inciting confrontation
“Through the repeated touting of the argument that China and India could not be free of conflicts, the westerners want purposely to channel China and India onto the track of strategic vicious competition and even strategic confrontation. If this happens, the westerners believe that they will live much relaxed with the rising of China and India,” said Dr.Hu.
The three countries should take much more responsibilities in global governance and management, he suggested. “Since the future options for development by China, India and the U.S. will have remarkable bearings on the living quality of the entire human being, the three countries should do more efforts to collectively address global issues involving human security such as energy, water resource, biological environment, terrorism, economic development etc.,” proposed Dr.Hu in his presentation.
If think alike
While concluding, he quoted the Chinese saying, “when brothers think alike, it is more than gold can buy.” “If China, India and the U.S. can really take the joint efforts and responsibility on global governance, it is more than narrow geo-strategic interests can buy,” he stated winding up his talk.
Why not Russia
Participating in a discussion on the topic, Shri N.Ram, Editor-in-Chief, The Hindu said that Russia should also be brought into the India-China-U.S. equation. It had to be quadrilateral especially if “you are formulating broader principles of cooperation,”
he opined. “If these three countries can cooperate, show cause why, given the strong links, Russia should not be brought into the equation,” he asserted. Referring to the boundary issue between India and China, Shri Ram said it was not going to be resolved any time soon. Recommending that Indian foreign policy should give up the tilt towards the U.S., he said much of the concerns in India, particularly of the Left, with government policies are related to the idea of strategic partnership with the U.S.
Dr. J.Panda, IDSA, India also participated in the discussion. Prof.Roderick Macfarquhar, Harvard University was in the chair.
No need to worry
In the seventh session Prof.Roderck Macfarquhar who spoke on Sino-U.S. Relations and India, said that neither India nor China needed to worry about any of them getting closer to the U.S. This is a cold war worry, pointing out that China would continue to be a major focus for the U.S. He said that China enjoyed enormous respect among the world community but this respect would remain partial until China evolved a more liberal system.
Lost opportunity
Reacting on the paper, Shri Salman Haidar, former Foreign Secretary, India said that India had a big opportunity in building its relationship with Pakistan through the Iran-India gas pipeline. India’s interest in Iran was not purely for accessing its natural gas. It was a building block in India’s relations with Pakistan, he clarified. Unfortunately, the pipeline proposal was discouraged by the U.S. primarily targeting Iran for spreading its influence in the region. Commenting on the India-China border issue he said that it was not good to leave it unsettled.
Prof. Merle Goldman, Harvard University chaired the session.
Competition for creating knowledge
The competition among India, China and the United States will not be for natural resources such as oil and gas but for intelligence and creating knowledge that spark inventions, said Prof.Yan Xuetong, Tsinghua University in the concluding session of the conference. He also called for discussions on global issues such as environmental concerns that would be dominating talks among countries in the near future. He suggested that such concerns be discussed at the next meeting of the Triangle.
The new initiative taken by the Centre for National Renaissance, New Delhi in Association with Harvard University, USA, Tsinghua University, China and SCMS-COCHIN to bring eminent academicians, politicians, experts and bureaucrats from the U.S., China, Israel and India for a dialogue on a new world order, sitting on the banks of the revered river Periyar, the birth place of Adi Sankara, ended with a joint statement that the deliberations would continue through further interactions, if possible on an annual basis. There were several suggestions on future research areas. Dr.Subramanian Swamy suggested terrorism as a topic for discussion. Shri N.Ram who chaired the session proposed mass deprivation as another area for discussion. Around 50 delegates actively participated in the deliberations, focusing on new power equations, for three days.
Filed under: SCMS
